Climate Change: Not a Physical Process but a Social One

A new set of principles is shaping implementation of the global climate agenda. Longer-term global trends, new global governance processes and a shift from maximizing growth to fostering higher-quality growth are leading to integration of climate change, reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide and sustainable development characterized by globally comparable standards of living for all in national growth strategies.

The subject of climate change is high on the agenda and expected to be among focal points of the upcoming BRICS summit scheduled to happen in China this year. As the five participating nations, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, gear up for the annual event, they need to ensure they work together and maintain global momentum in addressing climate change.

The history of negotiating a global climate treaty has been marked by periodic concessions to the U.S. and Europe working together. Both President Trump and Scott Pruitt – head of the U.S. United States Environmental Protection Agency – appear to be confident that the trend will continue. These developments create an opportunity for BRICS countries to step in and fill this vacuum left in the global climate agenda.

India’s role today is even more crucial. As a late developer with a strong potential for growth, the country now shoulders great pressure to do more and assumes a leadership position despite emissions levels a tenth of the U.S. and a third of the global average. India’s actions should set the agenda for reframing implementation to focus on solutions rather than multilaterally agreed targets and timetables, which are at best a monitoring tool.

Power and influence drowning out ideas explain how climate governance has been defined in the past – global temperature goals and annual emissions reduction target symptoms as opposed to measurements of human well-being within global ecological limits, which point towards the root cause of the problem. Climate research, largely financed by the U.S., pushed models focused on production sectors while ignoring energy end-use sectors and consumption, which are now responsible for two-thirds of emissions. This sets the framework of multilaterally agreed targets to deal with the problem. Consequently, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call to frame the Paris Agreement around ‘climate justice’ ended with the term relegated to the Preamble rather than an operational principle.

At the upcoming BRICS summit, India must be bold enough to re-frame implementation around cooperative solutions in five key areas:

First, it must be noted that per capita emissions in Germany are half of those in the U.S. China aims to cap its emissions around that level and India’s emissions will likely peak at even lower levels. ‘Climate justice,’ or convergence of per-capita historical emissions, as an integral piece of implementation of the Paris Agreement, provides the framework for assessing national action without relying on international targets, monitoring and review.

Second, usage of coal has peaked in highly industrialized countries as well as in China, as saturation levels in infrastructure development and urbanization have been reached. Oil consumption appears to have peaked in the U.S. and Europe. An energy transformation is taking place worldwide marked by increasing investment in renewable energy. Global emissions of carbon dioxide have remained steady for three years, highlighting measures that sharply reduce emissions without affecting well-being.

Third, the next point relates to the fact that three-quarters of the global population, economic activity, and emissions of carbon dioxide will soon be in cities. According to the International Energy Agency, urban infrastructure, land use policies and energy efficiency have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050, without affecting well-being. Energy efficiency expands the carbon budget without bringing new costs and should be the heart of global climate policy.

Fourth, the search for solutions in policy is shifting to drivers, trends and patterns of energy use and away from merely considering the impact on nature. At the global level, transport accounts for 35 percent of emissions and manufacturing only 23 percent, while residences account for 21 percent and services 14 percent. Urban dietary patterns have changed with meat production accounting for 15 percent of the global greenhouse gas emissions, and a third of world food production is wasted. The fastest growing emissions are in the urban transport sector, which are expected to double by 2050. Per capita car ownership in China is one twelfth of the U.S., and India has only a third of China. Transport emissions pose the greatest challenge.

Finally, the climate debate needs to shift focus to longer-term strategies as opposed to annual emissions reductions. For example, worldwide, most cars spend more than 95 percent of their lives in garages or parking lots and most roads reach anything near peak usage only once a day and typically in only one direction. Tilting car windows can reduce energy use by 30 percent. Just 20 to 40 percent of the transmission and distribution capacity is used at a given time, drawing on only about 40 percent of capacity of power plants, and reducing demand has a multiplier effect.

India should focus its national actions and multilateral debate on solutions: renewable energy cooperation, energy efficiency and urban design supporting shared and public transport. The Solar Alliance, along with electric vehicles and shared mobility, should serve as a key means of implementation of the Paris Agreement. National reports and their review should focus on reducing the gap between potential and practice in energy efficiency in cities. Exchange of experience on innovative measures for urban mobility should be another feature of annual deliberations.

The question of how urban societies manage (or fail to manage) the imbalance between human well-being (private goods) and planetary limits (public goods) forms the central problem for climate governance. Global environmental change is fundamentally a social process necessitating work at the local level in all countries. It is an opportunity for thought leadership of India, and BRICS as a whole, to lead work on the most important challenge of the century. 

The author has served as director in the Climate Change Secretariat and authored The World’s Search for Sustainable Development, published by Cambridge University Press.