Sino-Indian Relations at 70: Reinforcing Growth and Stability

As China and India celebrate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of their diplomatic ties this year, it is natural to raise issues related to their experience, prospects and challenges in bilateral relations. As the two most populous countries in Asia, with huge territories, resources, economies and stakes in regional and international affairs, their roles in the global arena have been exemplary.

Soon after the decolonization process began, India and China showed solidarity with the Afro-Asian unity process, non-alignment, South-South cooperation and began their respective nation building processes. Despite several setbacks in the past, India and China have respectively become the 6th and 2nd largest economies in the world today. These “simultaneously rising” countries are today engaged in an intense debate about future prospects.

As important stakeholders in globalization, China and India today see their coordination in several political and economic multilateral institutions like the United Nations, BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, G20, World Trade Organization, climate change proposals and Bretton Woods institutions as mutually reinforcing and reassuring partners given their focus on socio-economic developmental imperatives.

For instance, coordination between BRICS countries led to an increase in the voting rights for China and India at the International Monetary Fund. Likewise, the coordination of China and India and others on climate change proposals at the Copenhagen meeting in 2009 led to protection of interests of developing countries and the formulation of “equal, but differentiated, responsibilities” on the issue. Also, a focus on multi-polarity has protected the “non-interference” principle at the United Nations and other institutions and guarded the respective sovereignties of China and India.

At the bilateral level, both countries see the evolving partnership as a factor in regional and global stability given the increasing turbulence in recent times. The partnership between China and India evolved from the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence in 1954 to a constructive cooperative partnership in 1988, a strategic and cooperative partnership in 2005 and to the current developmental partnership since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to New Delhi in September 2014.

As the world went through turbulence in recent times from trade protectionism, tariff increases and technological disruptions or due to the spread of terrorism and the current COVID-19 pandemic, the Sino-Indian partnership is shown in their coordination and cooperation in regional and international affairs. Indeed, how to counter such disruptions and continue to boost economic growth has been a major task for their respective leadership.

China and India have been able to achieve stability in their bilateral relations on three levels. Firstly, due to institutional arrangements at various levels, bilateral relations have bounced back to normalcy and stability. Over 50 dialogue mechanisms have been established in the past several decades.

The two “informal summits” between leaders of the two countries in Wuhan in April 2018 and in Chennai in October 2019 have become an institutionalized mechanism, which is currently the top avenue to reach strategic consensus on a number of issues between China and India. Moreover, the two countries have been able to carry out very useful high-level strategic communication. They declared that “differences between the two countries should not lead to disputes,” suggesting that the leadership’s intervention in times of crisis could be resorted to.

The State Councilor-National Security Advisor level special representative mechanism since 2003 has prepared the ground for discussing not only boundary question but also overall security issues. So far, 22 such meetings have been held, which aim to resolve the China-India boundary question in three phases. The mechanism is to clarify the Line of Actual Control in the border areas. Once that is done, after the completion of the third phase, delimitation and demarcation efforts on the borders would commence.

Likewise, the strategic dialogue mechanism between foreign ministries of the two countries has provided an avenue for discussing and coordinating a number of foreign policy issues of multi-polarity and multilateralism but also the resolving bilateral problems. The regional security dialogues on Afghanistan, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and others have been conducive to reaching important consensuses. In August 2016, during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to New Delhi, this mechanism was further upgraded to include broader issues of concern and coordination.

The defense ministries of China and India have held an annual dialogue since the mechanism was established in 2006. In order to build understanding between the two armed forces, such annual dialogues became necessary, and through this mechanism eight “hand-in-hand” joint drills were conducted in different parts of India and China with focus on counter-terrorism. Since both countries identify terrorism as a challenge to their respective national security, such joint military exercises are expected to intensify in the near future.

As the two largest developing economies, China and India hold regular strategic and economic dialogues, of which six meetings were held between China’s National Development and Reform Commission and India’s Planning Commission (currently NITI Aayog). They have reached a number of agreements related to macroeconomic stability and explored avenues for infrastructure development.

China and India are the two largest investors in the recently formed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and equal stakeholders in the BRICS New Development Bank. Both have been proposing above-board banking principles like one country one vote, professional evaluation of loan proposals, environmental concerns, investing in social and health sectors, lean and mean staffing policies, and others that are expected to contribute to a new model of developmental and monetary policies in the future.

Other dialogue mechanisms existing between the two countries involve counter-terrorism, law enforcement, human resources development, finance and others. The nine financial dialogues between the two countries have led to preliminary understanding on regional currency related arrangements that is being practiced among BRICS countries. Necessary banking institutions are being set up to finance credit for the burgeoning trade between the two countries. Likewise, 11 joint working group meetings were held to expand their economic relations. Bilateral trade increased from a mere US$264 million in 1991 to US$92 billion in 2019. A “steel dialogue” was instrumental in expanding cooperation on one of the largest traded commodities between the two countries.

All the above dialogue mechanisms have been useful and, in tense situations, have led to ironing out differences and build stability in their bilateral relations. Moreover, they have sparked interest in looking beyond the mere bilateral spectrum.

A second set of stabilizing mechanisms that have been evolved over a period of time are related to the boundary question between China and India. Prior to the normalization of China-India relations in 1976, after the border conflict in 1962, there were sporadic attempts to build confidence between the two countries’ border guarding troops. In 1993, a “peace and tranquility” agreement was signed that ruled out war between China and India. During President Jiang Zemin’s visit to India in 1996, confidence-building measures (CBMs) in the military field   were proposed to stabilize the border areas of the two countries. These included no fly zones, no military exercises close to the border areas, withdrawal of troops and others.

In 2013, a border defense cooperation agreement was signed to avoid “tailing” of border patrols. In September 2017, during their meeting in Xiamen, Chinese and Indian leaders made an announcement for a new set of CBMs, including a “hotline” between the two countries’ military operational commands. Despite occasional border incidents, the above CBMs were able to put bilateral relations back on an even keel and as such provided for border stability. The significance of this dimension cannot be underestimated as these have led to not one bullet being fired since 1962 and ushering in peace and tranquility on the borders.

To celebrate the 70th anniversary of the establishment of China-India diplomatic ties, a number of events have been planned for this year, with 35 events to be held in each country. Many of these come under the rubric of “10 pillars” of cooperation agreed by the two countries in December 2018. These include think tank meetings and media forums (four of each have been held so far), as well as 14 sets of sister cities tie-ups in the two countries, 14 youth exchanges annually that began in 2006 and have recently been expanded, promotion of tourism through e-visas and others, collaboration between film and TV establishments, museum administration, conducting yoga classes, and recruiting Chinese language teachers for enhancing skills.

With the outbreak of COVID-19, such celebrations are expected to slow down as the focus has been on travel restrictions, social distancing, quarantine and treatment of patients. Nevertheless, Indian medical officials participated in the China-initiated online video conference for the Eurasia-South Asia region that began consultations on learning from each other’s medical experience in tackling the spread of COVID-19.

These initiatives of China and India, nevertheless, are significant in enhancing mutual understanding between China and India. More, of course, will be needed in the coming years.

The author is a professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.